Scalability of Futures Market and Capital Deployment

1. How Large Is Perps vs Coin M Market?

• Perps Open Interest (OI) is in the tens of billions of USD across major exchanges (Binance, CME, ByBit, OKX, Deribit, etc.). Data from aggregators like CoinGlass shows that total BTC OI typically ranges between $10B - $50B, with peaks towards $50B during bullish markets.

  

• Currently at $68Bn

  

• For delivery futures specifically (e.g., physically‐settled contracts on CME, or quarterly/biannual settlement contracts on major crypto exchanges), total notional OI remains in the billions of dollars, though lower than perpetual OI (3x lower)

  

Although CME’s market is currently about a third the size of the perpetuals market (still in billions of dollars), several key factors such as ETFs, the migration of TradFi funds, and improved yield visibility have the potential to significantly boost liquidity inflows into CME. In fact, open interest in the perpetual market surged from roughly $2B to over $20B in under a year, driven by innovations like Ethena. With more capital, more participants, and broader acceptance, the derivatives landscape in CME will only get bigger and bigger.

Scalability under present market conditions

Lets say we want to allocate 1B$ into the strategy:

1. 500M$ is deployed in the perps market
2. 500M$ is deployed in the futures delivery market

Expanding on the scalability of the futures delivery market:

Let:

• V = $170 million (the average daily volume)
• x = the total notional you want to execute (e.g., $500 million)
• α = the market impact coefficient (in basis points per fraction of ADV traded)